Oscars! The Academy Awards are tonight, and, like probably most people, I no longer really care about them. Will I watch them? Yes. Will I recap them for this website? You betcha. Do I care? Not really. Part of why I don’t care stems from the nominations. As I discussed in my earlier Oscars article, I was a bit dismayed by some of the snubs. Another issue I have is that, of the nominated films, those that I think should win and those that I think will win do not compare as nicely as I would hope. So, without further ado:
The Academy Awards, 2014: Who Should Win and Who I Think Will Win
Best Picture
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| American Hustle
Nebraska Philomena |
Gravity or 12 Years a Slave
Personally, I preferred Gravity, but in this rare case, I think they both equally deserve to win. |
12 Years a Slave It’s been winning everywhere else, and it is closer to the type of drama the Academy usually prefers. What will be interesting is how many other awards it wins. The Globes thought it deserved nothing except BP, strangely enough. |
Fox Searchlight Pictures
Best Leading Actor
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| Christian Bale (American Hustle)Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) |
Chiwetel Ejiofor
His performance is part of what made 12 Years a Slave such a good movie. There’s an outside chance that he might win the award, but given how quiet and subdued his performance was, it seems unlikely. |
Matthew McConaughey
His performance is one of the redeeming features of what I found to be an otherwise disappointing film. He deserves the nomination, but in my opinion, doesn’t deserve to beat out Ejiofor. |
Best Leading Actress
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) Sandra Bullock (Gravity) Judi Dench (Philomena) Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) |
Sandra Bullock
Her role in Gravity was unique and highly challenging, and many sequences were shot as just her head with lights flashing across it, but she always makes it feel real. |
Cate Blanchett
While she was very good in Blue Jasmine, this was not her best performance. That’s not her fault; Jasmine just isn’t that interesting a character. |
Warner Bros.
Best Supporting Actor
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle) Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) |
Michael Fassbender
He won’t win, because his character is so despicable, but Fassbender’s portrayal of a savage, cruel slave owner is intense, deep, and far more layered than most actors would make it. |
Jared Leto
There’s a very small chance that Barkhad Abdi will win instead, but it seems that Leto’s got this one. His performance was great, and the nomination well-earned, but once again, I find myself favoring 12 Years a Slave over Dallas Buyers Club. |
Best Supporting Actress
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) June Squibb (Nebraska) |
Lupita Nyong’o
Like Ejiofor and Fassbender, Nyong’o delivered one of the best performances of the year, and should the Academy get back in the habit of giving awards to the people who most deserve them, she’ll win. |
Lupita Nyong’o
If she does manage to lose to Jennifer Lawrence, I will actually just be very annoyed. |
Fox Searchlight Pictures
Best Director
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) David O. Russell (American Hustle) Alexander Payne (Nebraska) Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) |
Alfonso Cuaron | Alfonso Cuaron
I have few comments about this one, because there is no real contest. He does most deserve to win, and it’s basically been decided that he will win. |
Best Original Screenplay
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| American Hustle
Blue Jasmine Her Nebraska Dallas Buyers Club |
Her | Her
Spike Jonze’s screenplay is challenging, sad, funny, honest, and thought-provoking. That makes it unusual. |
Warner Bros.
Best Adapted Screenplay
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| Before Midnight
Captain Phillips 12 Years a Slave The Wolf of Wall Street Philomena |
Captain Phillips Billy Ray’s screenplay makes a familiar story gripping and emotional. It’s pretty much flawless. |
12 Years a Slave
This one is about as deserving, and they’ll like to pad out its Best Picture win with a few others. |
Best Animated Film
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| The Croods
Despicable Me 2 Ernest and Celestine The Wind Rises |
Frozen
That having been said, I haven’t gotten to see The Wind Rises yet. |
Frozen
It was a really enjoyable movie, and besides, Disney’s somehow never won in this category. |
Best Foreign Language Film
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Missing Picture The Great Beauty Omar |
The Hunt As I’m sure many of you know by now, The Hunt was also by far my favorite film of the year. |
The Great Beauty
I really hope I’m wrong, but people have been going crazy for this film, and it’s not as crushingly sad and bleak as The Hunt. |
Danmarks Radio
Best Cinematography
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| Gravity
Nebraska The Grandmaster |
Gravity
These are all great nominees, but Gravity’s stunning cinematography pushes the envelope on what’s possible in front of a green screen. |
Gravity
There’s no contest, really, despite how incredibly pretty all these nominees are. |
Best Production Design
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| 12 Years a Slave
American Hustle Gravity Her |
Her
The pastel vision of the future in Her is believable, sterile, and kind of pretty. There’s an odd bleakness to the soft color palette. |
The Great Gatsby
Which, you know, would be fine. |
Warner Bros.
Best Costumes
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| American Hustle
The Great Gatsby 12 Years a Slave The Grandmaster The Invisible Woman |
The Great Gatsby
Though a flawed movie, one can hardly find a way to criticize the stunning costumes in Gatsby. |
The Great Gatsby
Unless they want to pad out 12 Years a Slave’s BP win, or give a pity award to American Hustle. |
Best Original Score
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| The Book Thief
Gravity Her Philomena |
Her
I’m not much of an Arcade Fire fan, but the quiet, sad, and subdued score they produced for Her is perfect. |
Gravity or Her
I used the words “quiet” and “subdued” for Her. The Academy might prefer the more dramatic Gravity score. |
Best Original Song
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| “Happy” – Despicable Me 2
“Let it Go” – Frozen “Ordinary Love” – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom “The Moon Song” – Her |
Frozen
Granted, the Internet’s been overplaying this a bit, and I did really like “The Moon Song,” but I’m with Frozen. |
Frozen
The Internet’s overplaying could give this the push it needs, but then, U2 did write the song for Mandela. |
Best Visual Effects
| The Nominees | Who I Think Should Win | Who I Think Will Win |
| Gravity | Gravity
No comment. |
Gravity
I really think this speaks for itself. |
I don’t feel knowledgeable enough to predict Editing, Sound Mixing, or Sound Editing, but I think those will probably get tossed towards Captain Phillips or Gravity. Makeup will go to Dallas Buyers Club. The Act of Killing will probably win Best Documentary. So, I think 12 Years a Slave will take home the big award, but underperform in other categories. Potentially winning three or four in total. Gravity will probably be the big winner of the night, getting anywhere between four and seven awards. Hopefully Captain Phillips and Her will pick up a few each. Dallas Buyers Club is looking at probably three. American Hustle is kind of a wild card. I personally don’t think it deserves to win any of the awards for which it was nominated, but it could theoretically grab almost any of them.
Anyway, I’ll probably be recapping the ceremony tomorrow, so you can check in then to see how accurate or hilariously wrong I was… if you’re in to that kind of thing.
Rooster Illusion 
Imagine if ‘Her’ won BP? I can dream, right?
Congrats on your predictions, spot on! Check out my Oscar report here: http://moviequibble.wordpress.com/2014/03/03/news-the-academy-awards-2014/